A REPORT COVID 19 PROJECTION (A Case on Non-pharmaceutical and Vaccine Interventions)
The World Health Organization (WHO) declared the outbreak of COVID-19 as a global pandemic during March 11, 2020. By June 11, 2021, there were 174.4Million confirmed cases across the globe. In Ethiopia, on June 11, 2021, there were 273,678 total number of confirmed cases, and there were 4,231 total reported deaths. This evidence shows that the pandemic is still a national and global threat. Preventing and controlling the spread of COVDI 19, reducing disease severity and mortality require strict implementation of Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions (NPIs) and vaccination until proven treatment is made available.
Vaccination against SARS-CoV-2 has the potential to significantly reduce transmission and morbidity and mortality due to COVID-19. However, the efficacy of vaccination depends on demographic factors (age), level (prevalence) of the infection in the community, the compliance and efficacy of NPIs, the most prevalent variants of COVID-19 in the community, and the vaccine administration rate. Considering the complexities of large-scale vaccine production, distribution, storage, and uptake, achieving high coverage will be challenging. Therefore, critical questions remain regarding the need to continue non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs), such as physical distancing and face mask usage, as the public is vaccinated over time. The infection rate can be reduced by various non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) while a vaccine is targeted to sections of the population where it will have the greatest impact. Therefore, any proposed model must provide comparative simulations for different age groups and joint impact simulations for NPIs and vaccine intervention by considering different levels of compliances, efficacy, and rates of vaccine coverages.
This study aimed to provide long-term and short-term predictions on the total number of cases, severe (hospitalized) cases, critical (ICU) cases, and the number of deaths considering different vaccination coverage and its effectiveness across age groups and for COVID-19 variants and, compliances and effectiveness of the NPIs.